“Economics of the Pandemic Novel Corona .
1The Macroeconomics of the Flu
It all started on 17-Nov-2019 a beginning of the beginning, around the end of January Covid-19 was been detected in other countries also after China, starting from Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and so on. WHO declared Covid-19 as Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30-Jan-2019. Now this would form a chain reaction and all the economies will start to get a sense of damage, Labour workers being forced to stay in their houses would make them jobless, Meanwhile Bank of England had cut interests rates twice in Jan, and who knew what was to come?
The forecasted
The forecasted jobless people in the States was about 20 times in this time of the past year.
Every country in the world has their Central Banks cooking some schemes up to ensure the job availability and people for those jobs, As per Bloomberg, A total of 3.28 million people filed for unemployment insurance in the week ended March 21, dwarfing previous highs in Labour Department reports published since 1967.
In early March, the World Bank announced it would fund $12 billion in aid to developing countries to help them to deal with the impact of the virus and help it in containing it. They also said they would prioritise the most at-risk countries. The World Bank additionally presented a pandemic bond in 2017, which, as part of the Pandemic Emergency Finance Facility intended to provide money to help developing countries in the event of a pandemic reaching certain thresholds and conditions. So far, these criteria have not been met and the bond has not paid out.
The data below gives us a picture of the estimated number of cases in the United States
• Pennsylvania announced the greatest number of cases, with an expected 378,900
• California claims rose by 129,200 to 186,800
• In New York state, where roughly 50% of all known Covid cases in the U.S. are found, claims rose by 66,000 to 80,300.
• Ohio claims rose to an estimated 187,800
• Illinois claims rose to 114,700
• Florida claims rose to 74,000
• Michigan claims jumped to 129,300
If an economy like the United States is not able to stop the virus from travelling rather it is doing that at a very rapid rate, considering the amount of resources the United States. Even President Donald Trump said in his tweet “That the we are the most prepared country and they have allocated funds and special hospitals are being set up to stop the virus from spreading”, but the country also happens to be the 3rd most populated country of the world.
This data allowed quite a handful of economists that we are in a state of recession, almost every government has declared a lockdown in their respective jurisdictions, that will directly affect the Cash in Hand of both people and the government, as no country in the world has the resources to provide for the treatment if Covid-19 even spreads within 10% of the population, say for example: India, the country has almost 1.3 billion people and if even 1% of the population is tested positive then obviously the country cannot handle 13 million cases of Covid-19, as the country even has uneven distribution of income, so the availability of the limited resources is also going to be a large headache for the government, The Central Bank would have to release funds from the Treasury and ensure that money is not an issue for the virus that doesn’t have a cure.
The now the industry which was the first domino to fall in this crisis—The Aviation Sector, Obviously the virus is reaching other countries from the respective airports, many Private airlines were already on the brink of hitting losses before the virus outbreak and most of them even have;
• Lufthansa—EUR 116 mil losses in the first half of 2019
• Etihad—$870 mil in 2019
• Air India—INR 8550 cr in 2019
Airlines were already grounding their planes because they did not have enough passengers or the money to keep their planes in the air, The new guidelines is making the airlines do screening of their passengers even before entering the destination’s city airport that leading to additional costs, and even the airlines employees are working they are being forced to work. Now the passengers not travelling and even the government restricting domestic travel, the aviation industry is seeing the worst time of all.
The majority of airlines use their daily revenue to stay afloat, Flybe. is an example as they have shut down all their operations in January itself.
Only Government funded airlines can survive this crisis, that too because they own airports in their country -- Anthony Toth -- Airline Executive
The turn of events as a result of Covid-19 is almost without concrete evidence. It is unclear how the things will proceed, leading to an estimated $113 billion loss of revenue all over the world.
The coronavirus outbreak might cost the global economy $1-2 trillion in 2020, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development. Its potential impact on the Indian economy is not yet known, but several sectors are already feeling the pain, Here's a look at the sectors most impacted by the outbreak.
Consumer Durables and Electronics
As we know in India, China has the major hold on the market when it comes on the India’s imports of the Electronics and Consumer durables (45%-market share goes to China), the country has been in a state of shut down since January and now the virus coming to India will lead to long term loss of both the countries, and when we look at the taxation policies in China and also the availability of hourly wage labours, that is lower manufacturing costs that’s why most of the world’s MNC’s have their production set up in China, So this outbreak will have a strong global impact on the companies set up in China, example Apple, Sinopec Group and many more..
Then again, medical care laborers will probably encounter an expansion popular for laborers. Prior to the infection flare-up, we were at that point confronting a deficiency of more than 1 million medical care occupations, as indicated by Burning Glass Technologies. In parts of Italy, retired doctors are being asked to go back to work. In the U.S., there are 16.5 million medical services laborers. By 2028, the BLS ventures an expansion of almost 2 million positions in the field. "Medical care occupations for as far back as 10 to 20 years have been downturn confirmation," said Elise Gould, a financial expert from the Economic Policy Institute. One more aspects of this is, if the virus penetrates African countries, then we will never see the end of this pandemic until and unless a proper vaccine of this developed, and some billionaire is ready to provide those to the people living there because African government lacks the potential and the resources to do it, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation successfully removed polio, diarrhoea etc
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